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Friday, November 01, 2002

In Other Election News: The Senate

Missouri: Jim Talent seems to be leading Jean Carnahan, 45-41... But there are a lot of undecideds.
South Dakota: John Thune leads Tim Johnson, 48-43... Though there are other polls suggesting Johnson has a small lead.

***

I have nothing new on Arkansas, Colorado, Texas, Minnesota, or Georgia. Trends suggest that Wayne Allard (R) will eek out a very, very tight victory in Colorado. All the latest polls have Tim Hutchinson (R) and Saxby Chambliss (R) slightly trailing in Arkansas and Georgia, respectively. Cornyn seems to have a relatively comfortable lead over Kirk in Texas. Coleman still trails Mondale, but Mondale is beatable (especially if Minnesotans get miffed over the Wellstone memorial-cum-Dem rally, if Coleman can capitalize on this "wave of the future" thing, and if turnout is low). If all these races break the way they're trending, that means two GOP pickups (MO, SD), two Dem pickups (AR, NH) -- in other words, no change. Republicans need to push in MO and SD and score an upset in NH (quite possible) or AR (less likely).

Bush's travel schedule reflects his priorities:
Friday: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Kentucky
Saturday: Tennessee, Georgia, Florida
Sunday: Illinois, Minnesota, South Dakota, Iowa
Monday: Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas
Tuesday: Texas

Clearly, Bush wants to focus on MO and SD, and wants to bolster Hutchinson in AR. NH shouldn't be Friday -- it should be later in his schedule, since it's less of an uphill battle than AR. (Why he's wasting time in Iowa, I don't know. But oh well.)

Posted by Emmett at 12:55 PM

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